Ankara assures the US on the elections date via NATO

The international courtesy visits to Türkiye following the devastating earthquakes that destroyed a dozen cities continue with diplomatic turns.

On February 27, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry was welcomed by Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu in Adana. Following the 2013 coup in his country, he was the first Egyptian Foreign Minister to visit Türkiye in a decade. On the same day, Çavuşoğlu welcomed Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto in Ankara and at the following press conference said that the talks on Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership, which were interrupted before the earthquake, would resume on March 9. This decision seems to be the result of the promises made to NATO and the US during their earthquake visits.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Türkiye  on February 19 and 20. This was his first visit to Türkiye since taking office in January 2021. It was a follow-up to Cavusoglu’s visit to the US just before the earthquake (January 19), but it was included in the regional tour that included Germany, Israel, and Greece due to the February 6 earthquake disaster. For that reason, he first landed at Incirlik military airport, where he met with American teams who had come to help earthquake victims in Türkiye. He then flew to Ankara and visited Çavuşoğlu and President Tayyip Erdoğan.

Stoltenberg-Blinken NATO traffic

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg arrived in Ankara on February 16 to pay condolences for the earthquake, but his 1 hour and 20 minute meeting with Erdoğan went beyond the limits of a condolence visit. In fact, Stoltenberg later said that Sweden and Finland were discussed during the meeting and that his goal was for the two countries to become members at the NATO Summit in July. Türkiye suspended talks for the two countries’ NATO membership bids, citing Sweden’s failure to keep its promises on taking action against terrorist organizations and extradition requests, most recently allowing the Qur’an burning demonstration.  It was even reported that Türkiye had withdrawn its decision to suspend talks and promised to approve membership, but this information was not confirmed.

On February 16, Stoltenberg left Ankara for Munich to attend the Munich Security Conference from February 17–19. Blinken was there, and they met. At the January 19 meeting between Blinken and Cavusoglu, Türkiye’s F-16 purchase request and the Sweden-Finland issue were also on the agenda. According to Stoltenberg, the US also had a role to play, especially in Sweden’s NATO membership. Blinken thus came to Türkiye with both earthquake condolences and NATO lockdown on his plate.

The US imposition on Sweden-Finland

According to information obtained by YetkinReport from diplomatic sources, Blinken mentioned the need for Sweden and Finland to become members of NATO together in order for NATO to stand firm against Russia as the first anniversary of the Ukraine war approached. Erdoğan said, as Cavusoglu had earlier, that there was not much of a problem with Finland, but that Sweden had not kept its word. He reminded the US of its F-16 responsibility if NATO is to be strengthened.

Blinken said that talks should at least resume; he did not want to return from Ankara empty-handed. Ankara agreed, but asked that the talks be held at NATO headquarters in Brussels, so that everyone could see that Sweden was not keeping its word. This condition was accepted.

According to the US, this should be done by the NATO Summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11-12. The imposition of such a date allowed Sweden to make no concessions. But if Sweden accepts Türkiye’s demands at the March 9 meeting, would Türkiye give the parliamentary approval it needs for membership?

May 14 promise to the US

If the critical parliamentary and presidential elections in Türkiye were to be held on May 14, as discussed, the parliament would have been closed for the elections at that time.

Moreover, at the time of these meetings, there was a debate in Türkiye about postponing or not holding the elections on June 18. Such a situation would have raised questions in the West about the democratic functioning of Türkiye under Erdoğan.

Erdoğan was saying that this issue would not come to parliament before the elections, even if only for Finland. They could have brought it after the election. This was a promise based on the assumption that Erdoğan would win the election again.

According to diplomatic sources, Blinken did not ask, “Will there be an election?”, which would have raised tensions anyway. But he did ask when it would be held, to see if Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership would be ready in time for the Vilnius summit. Erdoğan replied that it would probably be on May 14. This was an assurance to both the US and NATO that the elections in Türkiye would be held ahead of schedule and would not be postponed until after the NATO summit.

If Erdoğan wins, if he doesn’t

In Athens after Ankara, Blinken told the Greek government that they should work together with Türkiye to strengthen NATO. Following this, on February 23, Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin repeated on CNN International that the elections could be held on May 14.

“Probably May 14,” Presidential Communications Director Fahrettin Altun told a group of Ankara representatives.

Meanwhile, Türkiye was among the 141 countries that voted at the UN to demand Russia’s immediate withdrawal from Ukraine. Finally, on February 27, Mustafa Elitaş of the AKP announced that there was no question of postponing the election. All that remains is for Erdoğan to announce on March 10 (one day after the Sweden-Finland meeting at NATO) the expected date of May 14.

If Erdoğan wins the election, it seems likely that Finland and then Sweden, or perhaps both, will be approved for NATO membership at the Vilnius summit. Despite Cavusoglu’s reiteration that Sweden will not be approved unless they meet the conditions, it seems possible that Erdoğan’s resistance to the US will result in a compromise.

What happens if Erdoğan loses? The Six-Party Table has already promised to fight terrorism and improve relations with the West, especially the European Union.