Diplomatic reports started to say that Erdoğan may lose

There has been a remarkable change in the assessments of foreign diplomatic missions in Ankara in the last month, regarding the result of the May 14 elections in Türkiye.

Until recently, there was little doubt in the assessments of countries and international organizations that President Tayyip Erdoğan would make a last-ditch push and win the election on the strength of state resources. This was even though some of them were subscribers of Turkish polling companies and most of them showed the opposition candidate, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, ahead.

In addition to judgments such as “Erdoğan does not enter an election that he will lose” and “Erdoğan will use every method even if he loses and will not give up power”, the fragmented structure of the opposition and the fact that they could not decide on the candidate they would put up against Erdoğan played a role in this belief. Rather than proven wrong, it was easier for them to report to their capitals on the morning of May 15th that “surprise, the opposition won”.

In addition to those in the diplomatic community who maintained this view, some started to add their report on the possibility of Erdoğan losing the election, diplomatic sources who wanted to remain anonymous told YetkinReport.

The Akşener effect on diplomatic circles

The answers I received when I asked about this change indicate that it was an interesting turning point. IYI Party leader Meral Akşener’s withdrawal from the Six Table on March 3 and her re-joining on March 6, accepting Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu’s candidacy, was a turning point for diplomatic observers.

This development that led to a loss of some votes from the IYI Party and thus the Nation (Millet) Alliance, was evaluated differently in the diplomatic community. Western political observers saw it as a rallying move for the opposition front to unite – at least about a joint candidate.

One European diplomat said that they started to think that perhaps without this event, the opposition would have disintegrated without nominating a joint candidate. But Akşener’s return and endorsement of the candidacy of Kılıçdaroğlu showed diplomats that for opposition voters, the important thing was the emergence of a candidate to challenge Erdoğan. Kılıçdaroğlu’s Alevi faith background, which was previously considered almost a taboo, did not draw as much reaction as it was rumored to have, and Kılıçdaroğlu himself later expressed it in a move to make it a non-issue.

What does it mean?

The fact that the diplomatic community in Ankara has begun to consider that Erdoğan might lose means basically two things:

1. Embassies and other missions that value Turkey for their own international politics, both in bilateral and multilateral relations, will be more cautious about putting all their eggs in one basket, i.e. relying on the assumption of a guaranteed victory for Erdoğan,
2. As a result, they tend to refrain from commenting on the results of the elections in Turkey, adopting a neutral position and a “whoever the Turkish people prefer is acceptable to us” discourse. There are already signs of this. Even Russia, which wanted Erdoğan to stay in power, has recently become more cautious.

EU officials have conveyed to Kılıçdaroğlu the concern of the European right about his pledge to send the Syrians back, which could direct them to Europe via other routes. While this may mean that “Erdoğan is at least keeping the Syrians in Turkey”, diplomatic reports sent from Ankara suggest that the electoral winds are shifting.

Another indication is that in the last few weeks, the diplomatic community has been asking who will take over foreign policy, who will take over the economy, and what the distribution of duties among the deputy presidents will look like if the government changes.

First signs of task distribution

Diplomatic missions’ curiosity about the distribution of duties has been partially satisfied with the statements of the last few days.
For example, Kılıçdaroğlu released a video yesterday (April 23) night with Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu on his left and Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş on his right. Kılıçdaroğlu said that, if elected, İmamoğlu would be responsible for disaster management, urban empowerment, and housing policies in addition to his role as IBB mayor, while Yavaş would be responsible for social policies, poverty alleviation, and digital technology in addition to his role as mayor of Ankara.

IYI Party leader Meral Akşener also announced that her economic prince Bilge Yılmaz might be a minister in the field of economy, while she will coordinate public order as Vice President.

Diplomatic missions in Ankara are likely to have more reports to write to their headquarters next week.