Will Turkish FM be at the EU’s Gymnich Meeting?

Will Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan be invited to the informal meeting of Foreign Affairs Ministers of European Union in Toledo, Spain to be held on August 30th?

This question is seeking an answer within the busy schedule of the Foreign Ministry these days.

Because this meeting will be an indicator for President Tayyip Erdoğan’s intention to revive relations with the EU, which he expressed at the July 11-12 NATO Summit when he conditionally gave the green light to Sweden’s membership.

Turkey was last invited to these “Gymnich Meetings” in February 2019. The Greek Cypriot government had vetoed the invitation to be held in August the same year. The Greek Cypriot Foreign Minister Nikos Christodoulides attributed the veto to “Turkey’s actions in the Eastern Mediterranean”. He is now the President. Nowadays he says he is ready to talk about anything but a two-state solution “in order to move Turkey’s relations with the EU forward”.

Today Christodoulides is speaking moderately, but he has not lifted his veto on Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan’s invitation to the Gymnich meeting. According to diplomatic sources, the hosts, Spain and Germany, are trying to get the veto lifted.

Veto to meeting, hiding behind Cyprus

Of course, it is important to remember that this is the same process that led Western countries, including Sweden and Finland to impose an arms sales ban on Turkey, to prevent them from being used in Turkey’s cross-border operations against PKK-linked organizations in Syria.

This ban was lifted by both countries in order to get Turkey’s consent when they wanted to become NATO members after Russia’s war on Ukraine.

It is not only Sweden and Finland, let’s give them their due. Most EU countries have been using them as a scape goat ever since they broke their promises to Turkey in 2004 and let the Greek Cypriot government represent the Turkish Cypriots, against their will.

There are a couple of reasons why Christodoulides is speaking moderately these days, even though he is still blocking Fidan.

The first is Erdoğan’s increasing calls for a “two-state solution” and for the Turkish Cypriot government to officially recognize the TRNC. He reiterated this call in his speech in Nicosia yesterday, July 20, marking the 49th anniversary of the 1974 Cyprus operation.

Secondly, Turkey’s approval of Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership, its prominence in the Russia-Ukraine war, and the shift in the balance in the Eastern Mediterranean in Turkey’s favor.

Increased diplomatic intensity

There is an expectation that the meeting between Erdoğan and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during the NATO Summit will have a positive impact on the Cyprus issue, but the past has been a history of frustration.

However, the changing balance in the Eastern Mediterranean directly affects the Middle East.

On his return from Cyprus, Erdoğan will host Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on July 25 and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on July 28. (It should be noted that Erdoğan’s attempt to mediate between Israel and Syria in 2006 was in the final stages, but Israel’s attacks on Gaza and Lebanon soured relations even before the Davos controversy and the Mavi Marmara attack).

Meanwhile, Fidan is in talks with the United Nations to bring Russia back from its withdrawal from the Grain Corridor Agreement with Ukraine, and with the US and EU countries to ease their sanctions on fertilizers.

On the other hand, after Ankara gave the green light to Sweden’s NATO membership by promising to “transfer it to the Parliament”, there are reports that Washington has been considering something new on the F-16 issue; for example saying “let’s do it at the same time”. Unless, of course, a last-minute manoeuvre.

Even if Fidan receives an invitation

Even if other EU members persuade the Greek Cypriot government to lift this veto this time – which it may repeat in the future – and Fidan is invited to the Gymnich meeting, this will not mean that Turkey-EU relations have improved.

Cyprus is the most serious problem in Turkey-EU relations, but there is another equally serious problem.

This is the rule of law, pluralist democracy, human rights and freedoms. This problem is most embodied in the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), which is part of the Council of Europe, of which Turkey is a founding member. Although Turkey had enshrined the binding nature of the ECtHR judgments in the Constitution in 2003-2004 with the AKP-CHP cooperation in the Parliament, there have been setbacks in this regard, especially since the July 15, 2016 military coup attempt. This is most evident in the cases of Osman Kavala (and the Gezi Trial) and Selahattin Demirtaş.

Strategic benefit is not enough

Erdoğan may only believe – as in the case of Finland and Sweden – that progress in the EU process can be achieved through cooperation on strategy, and he may be pushing for this. However, both Fidan, who has been in charge of intelligence for years, and his former Chief Advisor İbrahim Kalın, who has now replaced Fidan as the head of MIT, and Çağatay Kılıç, who has replaced Kalın as the new Chief Advisor, know what is what.

The question is whether they will be able to explain this to Erdoğan starkly enough.