Turkish local election traffic jam: AKP’s deals, CHP’s moves

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is set to announce its candidates for the upcoming local election on December 15. Before the big announcement where all the municipal candidates will be revealed, political traffic has become quite hectic.

President Erdoğan had a meeting with New Welfare Party (YRP) leader Fatih Erbakan on December 12 and HÜDA-Par leader Zekeriya Yapıcıoğlu on December 13. The meetings with the two party leaders, who had granted their support to Erdoğan in the May elections by joining the AKP and MHP’s People Alliance, are crucial.

Immediately after the meetings, there were rumours in political circles that Erdoğan had requested both Islamist parties for support for Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir and that they wanted the AKP to support their candidates in several municipalities in return.

According to NTV, Erbakan demanded to be able to nominate a candidate in at least one metropolitan area. It was even rumoured that Erbakan targeted one of the metropolitan mayors of Bursa or Malatya. Some district municipalities in Istanbul and in the southeastern provinces, such as Diyarbakır and Batman, are also on the bargaining list of the YRP and HÜDA-PAR.

Erdoğan is expected to make his decision on the candidate demands of Yeniden Refah and Hüda Par after consulting not only with the AKPy’s board but also with MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli.

Election traffic: MHP, AK Party

It is known that Erdoğan’s election strategy is “the candidate who will win.” This means nominating candidates who will appeal to the centre in metropolitan cities such as Ankara, Istanbul, and Izmir. It also means nominating whoever will win for their alliance without losing votes to the main opposition CHP or Kurdish-issue-focused DEM Party.

However, it becomes more complicated when it comes to alliance balances.

The committee established between the AKP and the MHP to determine in which provinces they will cooperate or nominate a joint candidate has not yet reached a complete conclusion. The committee, co-chaired by AKP’s Efkan Ala and MHP’s Feti Yıldız, left the final decision to their leaders.

The MHP wants the ability to propose a joint candidate in the metropolitan cities of Adana and Mersin, in addition to Manisa, which it already governs. There are also the municipalities of Amasya, Bayburt, Çankırı, Erzincan, Karaman, Kastamonu, and Kütahya, as well as the municipalities of Bartın Karabük and Osmaniye, which were previously held by the AKP by nominating different candidates in 2019.

If Erdoğan conveys the demands of the YRP and Hüda-Par to the MHP, that may strengthen Bahçeli’s bargaining power.

Candidate selection in three major cities

At a meeting with Ankara and Izmir organisations on December 13, Erdoğan stated that he would back the MHP candidate in Ankara’s Akyurt, Elmadağ, and Kalecik districts, indicating that district bargaining is also taking place. At this meeting, he urged the Ankara and Izmir organisations to select three candidates each for the metropolitan and district levels. Istanbul certainly demands particular consideration; Erdoğan’s goal of “Istanbul again” demonstrates this.

In Izmir, one of the most notable names among the probable AKP candidates is Hamza Dağ, a 43-year-old deputy chairman who has been an Izmir deputy since the 2011 election.

Both the AKP and the CHP had inquired about Mahmut Özgener, president of the Izmir Chamber of Commerce, but Özgener preferred to stay out of politics.

CHP leader Özgür Özel also stated that if Tunç Soyer wins the Izmir polls, they will stay with him. Otherwise, the CHP will look for a “winning candidate.” The CHP continues with Mansur Yavaş in Ankara and Ekrem İmamoğlu in Istanbul. In Istanbul, Esenler Mayor Tevfik Göksu is now the AK Party’s frontrunner.

CHP, IYI Party grastoots cooperation for local election

If it happens, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya’s nomination as AKP candidate for Ankara or Istanbul is more likely to be Erdoğan’s selection than his own initiative. He recently debunked the rumours that he was going to be the AKP’s nominee.

In Istanbul, AKP member Göksu also serves as his party’s spokesperson in the IBB Assembly. From there, let us reveal one of the uncommon developments in the IBB Assembly, if not in Turkish politics.

When IYI Party spokesperson İbrahim Özkan defended electoral cooperation with the CHP in the IBB Assembly, Meral Akşener asked for and received his resignation. However, when other IYI Party members re-elected Özkan, Akşener asked all of them to be expelled. This must be the first sign of the grassroots cooperation that Özel mentioned.

CHP, DEM, and co-presidency

On the same day that Erdoğan met with the leader of Hüda-Par, Özel and CHP Secretary General Selin Sayek Böke paid a visit to the DEM Party, which had to change its name. On the same day, Özel received criticism for the welcome he sent to Selahattin Demirtaş.

The most memorable moment of the visit was when DEM Party’s co-chair Tülay Hatimollar, turned to Özel during the press conference, and said “I have almost called him co-chair,” possibly because of the image of him and Sayek Böke.

In fact, the co-chair system is spreading in many left, social democratic, and green parties in Europe; it is important for equal representation of women. So is the German Social Democratic Party, whose congress Özel and Sayek Böke attended. A co-presidency system may suit the CHP; do not think in stereotypes.

And the covert race within the CHP

There is a secret race within the CHP, but it is not widely publicised.

With a population of 940,000, Çankaya is Turkey’s second-largest district after Istanbul’s Esenyurt. By the way, Gaziantep’s Şahinbey is the third and Ankara’s Keçiören is the fourth, which explains their weight in the metropolitan candidate nomination campaign. Osmangazi of Bursa is ranked fifth.

Çankaya is the heart of politics. It is home to the Parliament, most ministries, party headquarters, and embassies.

In terms of vote distribution, Çankaya is a CHP stronghold; in the 2023 presidential election, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu earned 75 percent of the votes, exceeding not only the CHP but also the Millet Alliance’s whole vote potential. Alper Taşdelen, the mayor of Çankaya, was instrumental in this.

But this situation also increased the demand for Çankaya; in any case, not Taşdelen, but anyone from the CHP could have taken Çankaya. CHP candidate candidates saw Çankaya as a piece of cake. As far as I learned, 20 CHP candidates applied for Çankaya. Let’s see who will win.