If Imamoğlu loses the Istanbul mayoral race: Who bears responsibility?

Murat Kurum, the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) candidate for Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, has already become the favorite politician of those who produce political humor or political gaffe content on social media. Don’t say “trolls” right away; unfortunately, we have a reality of trolls, this is true, but almost every step Kurum takes and every word he says has become so valuable to social media and his political rivals.

Kurum’s success: “Don’t ask”

For example, while I was scrolling videos in social media before going to sleep, a video of Kurum showing his traditional dance moves at a special event of local gathering in Istanbul on March 2 was circulating.  It was after Ekrem İmamoğlu, the Mayor of IBB, who danced the horon, Black Sea traditional dance at another event, and Kurum could not be left behind, of course.

I won’t comment, you can watch it from this link. Of course, being good at folklore dancing is not a measure of mayorship, but I cannot stop keep myself asking: who makes Kurum do these things?

When I woke up this morning, there was a new one in the media. Kurum, the candidate for Istanbul, had said that “the oppressed people in Gaza will rejoice” when he is elected on March 31st. I won’t go into details but Imamoğlu’s answer was swift: Did Kurum mean to say that he would do what President Tayyip Erdoğan could not? Moreover, IBB was already sending the donations of Istanbulites to Gaza through aid organizations.

“Come to Sultangazi on the morning of March 5, let’s send (the aid) it together, don’t hesitate,” İmamoğlu added.

I will not prolong the examples, but let me quote the response of a prominent AKP figure in charge of supporting the party’s candidate Kurum to the question of Erdoğan sympathizer friend of mine, who has a place in Istanbul social circles.

“Where did our President find him?” my friend asked, as he told me, “Don’t ask,” the AKP figure responded.

If Imamoğlu loses: Anti-Imamoğlu faction in CHP

That is why I say that if Imamoğlu loses the IBB mayoralty, which the CHP won after a quarter of a century in 2019, it will not be thanks to Kurum’s successful performance. To some extent, it will be thanks to the success of President and AKP leader Tayyip Erdoğan, but not because he nominated Kurum as a candidate. Rather, it is because for the last five years and still, he has used all the state’s resources to restrict CHP municipalities, especially Imamoğlu in Istanbul and Mansur Yavaş in Ankara.

If İmamoğlu loses this election, which will not be limited to İmamoğlu’s or CHP’s loss. It will open the door for Erdoğan to become the sole ruler of the entire administration, including the municipalities. If that happens, it will also be the work of some of the CHP’s allies in the previous election, especially the anti-Imamoğlu faction within the CHP, who criticized Erdoğan’s administration as “one man”.

There are rumors circulating in Ankara that this faction within the CHP is preparing a new move after March 3, when the Supreme Electoral Board will finalize the candidates, not only against İmamoğlu but also for the failure of the CHP.

CHP supporters who say CHP should not win

Özer Sencar, director of MetroPoll research company, identifies the three parties that will have an impact on the election results as of the end of February as İYİ Party, DEM Party and Yeniden Refah Partisi (New Welfare Party). İYİ Party was CHP’s ally in the 2019 local elections and the 2023 presidential elections. DEM (as the successor of HDP and YeşilSol) supported İmamoğlu in Istanbul in 2019 and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in 2023. Now they are against him with strong candidates (Buğra Kavuncu and Meral Danış Beştaş). Yeniden Refah seemed to aspire for AKP votes.

The existence of a segment within the CHP electorates who said that they would vote for the AKP “so that the CHP would not win” was also measured for the first time in the same survey conducted by MetroPoll. Of those who answered “Yes” to this question was the 4 percent of those who voted for the CHP in the May 14, 2023 Parliamentary elections. Likewise, according to the same survey, while 48 percent of those who said Imamoğlu would win the Istanbul election regardless of party difference (against 43 percent who had the potential to vote for İmamoğlu in the election), 4.2 percent of CHP voters said “He cannot win”.

The numbers validate: There is a faction within the CHP that prefers Kurum to win rather than İmamoğlu.

Is Imamoğlu not at fault at all?

Isn’t Imamoğlu and, let’s be frank, Özgür Özel, who was elected CHP chairman on November 5 by overthrowing Kılıçdaroğlu thanks to İmamoğlu’s support, to blame for this “conquest”? If İmamoğlu loses on March 31st, it will be due not only to the success of Kurum, but also to the CHP members who will not work for him in ballot box inspections and the fact that he started to cut the branch he rode on with his own attitude from 2023 onwards.

The CHP has still not recovered from the trauma and shock caused by the 2023 defeat; I think there will be another internal reckoning after the March 31st elections. However, despite his conciliatory approach, Özel failed to manage the candidate selection process well. For example, he allowed instances where the authority of Deputy Chairman Veli Ağababa overshadowed his own authority.

İmamoğlu, on the other hand, narrowed Özel’s room for maneuver with his interventions that went beyond Istanbul, for example in Izmir.

Ballot box warning to Yavaş

In our detailed interview on the elections, MetroPoll Research President Sencar gave a warning to Mansur Yavaş in Ankara. According to Sencar, Yavaş was “more than ten points ahead” of AKP candidate Turgut Altınok. But this difference was under the threat of ballot box security. Sencar argued that Yavaş lost by a small margin in 2014 because the CHP organization did not protect the ballot boxes, and that he won by a smaller margin in 2019 for the same reason, and suggested that Yavaş should take his own precautions.

If İmamoğlu wins despite the controversial candidate processes in metropolitan cities such as İzmir, Hatay, Antalya, Eskişehir, Çankaya in Ankara, Esenyurt, Sarıyer, Kadıköy in Istanbul, despite the controversial candidate processes in districts with high voter influence such as Esenyurt, Sarıyer, Kadıköy in Istanbul, Özel will also be deemed to have won, and a new era -which we cannot predict exactly how it will be at the moment- will begin in the CHP. If İmamoğlu loses, the bill for this will fall on both İmamoğlu and Özel, and the CHP will continue as we know it, as far as it can go.

Back to the beginning. If Imamoğlu loses, this will be the work of the faction in the CHP that has long been susceptible to creating cliques rather than the success of Kurum or even Erdoğan’s failure.