Far-reaching consequences: two scenarios of Istanbul’s Mayoral race

Ever since Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan launched the election campaign with the motto “reconquering Istanbul,” it has been clear that the real competition in the upcoming March 31 local elections will be for the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality. Now, with almost a week left until the election, this race is neck and neck.

It is not clear whether the winner on April 1 will be main opposition CHP’s Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu or Erdoğan’s ruling AKP candidate Murat Kurum. The polls that show İmamoğlu or Kurum in the lead are still within the margin of error.

Depending on whether İmamoğlu or Kurum wins the Istanbul election, there are two scenarios ahead of us, both of which will be different from today. The difference will be both politically and economically. First, politics.

Two scenarios: If Kurum wins

If Kurum wins, it will not only mean Erdoğan achieving his goal of retaking Istanbul from the CHP after losing it in 2019 for the first time in 25 years, but also integrating Istanbul with the resources and capabilities of the central government on a national scale.

Kurum’s victory will also mean a significant political consolidation and integration of power on a large scale. In other words, as emphasized by Erdoğan’s ally, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, the door to the implementation of the Presidential Government System down to the grassroots of the country, including local governments, will open on April 1st.

It is difficult to say that this perspective was clear in the political plans of both Erdoğan and Bahçeli before the 2019 local elections. Its importance became apparent when they realised the vacuum created by the transfer of not only Istanbul but also major cities such as Ankara, Antalya, Adana, and Mersin to the CHP, and the deprivation of resources.

Kurum’s victory in Istanbul will also allow Erdoğan to further close the checks and balances mechanisms on the executive branch through constitutional amendments and to be able to run for office again with the support of Bahçeli.

In this case, the opposition and the media will also wake up to a new era.

If İmamoğlu wins

If İmamoğlu wins, it will be perceived as Erdoğan’s loss, not Kurum’s. It is not Kurum’s fault, Erdoğan wanted it to be perceived this way. But it will not only mean Erdoğan losing again to the same person after being elected President once again after 5 years. If İmamoğlu maintains his seat at the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality on April 1st, it indicates the desire of Turkish electorate to maintain the balance of power in governance and to oppose the scenario where local governments fall under the control of the executive branch entirely.

And İmamoğlu will become a political leader in Turkish politics who has defeated Erdoğan twice by April 1st if he retains his seat.

Indeed, the fact that not only the ruling parties but also the opposition parties, and even some factions within the CHP, are working against İmamoğlu shows this. Because if İmamoğlu wins, he will be perceived not only as the natural leader of the CHP but also as the leader of the anti-Erdoğan opposition and he will be a warrior-like leader. İmamoğlu is the person Erdoğan sees his own rise when he look at him: he has risen through struggle not only within the established system but also within his own party and started to rise by proving himself in Istanbul seat.

And on April 1st, the economy

İmamoğlu’s victory means the reestablishment of internal political balances in Türkiye.

This includes constitutional amendments. If İmamoğlu retains his seat on April 1st, this will not facilitate the decision of the Erdoğan-Bahçeli alliance to hold a referendum on constitutional amendments.

In fact, one major obstacle to the constitutional amendment referendum is the economic crisis. Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek and Erdoğan himself acknowledge that the election economy has delayed the economic recovery route.

With the Medium-Term Program for exiting the economic crisis, along with all the austerity and cooling measures, a new beginning will be made on April 1st. Although the fact that Turkey will wake up to a new environment in terms of the economy on April 1st is an independent reality regardless of whether İmamoğlu or Kurum wins. But in addition to the challenging conditions of the economy, especially if the opposition holds major cities such as Istanbul, Ankara, and Izmir, it will be riskier to put the election back in front of the people.

The economic crisis will be the variable that determines two separate scenarios presented by İmamoğlu or Kurum winning on April 1st.