The second Trump era. How did he win? How will it affect Türkiye?

The second Donald Trump era begins in the United States. He said “America’s golden age” had begun in his victory speech. President Tayyip Erdoğan celebrated by wishing for a “more just world.”

Preliminary assessments suggest that one of the most important factors in the Republicans winning the election with Trump was the Democrats’ inability to field a candidate as strong as Trump. Perhaps Kamala Harris, because of Joe Biden’s mental faculties, could have brought a liberal sparkle to counter Trump’s boldness and fascistic approach to certain issues, but the American people seem to have concluded that Harris could not solve their real problems.

There are other important reasons.

There is no quantitative commentary yet on the victimization effect of the assassination attempts.

However, there is criticism, for example, that Harris has neglected the rural and white Christian vote in her focus on the big cities. Moreover, the Democrats failed to retain the black and Latino vote, even though Harris herself is not white. Mexican immigrants and immigrants from all over the world who came to the US – like the one who arrived in Istanbul six months ago complaining about “the influx” – have supported Trump’s policy of not taking in more immigrants. Trump’s incitement of black and Latino youth against the “educated” by fueling the enmity between the more and less educated, which we are not strangers to, is also said to have played a role in this.

Backfired weapons of Harris

Nevertheless, Harris has not been able to retain the votes Biden received from the educated urbanites. It is considered that the Biden-Harris administration’s open support for the Binyamin Netanyahu administration’s atrocities against Palestinians in Israel during the Gaza Crisis and its practices such as turning university campuses into open-air prisons played a role in this. To some extent, the shift of the Arab vote from the Democrats to the Republicans is also a factor.

On the other hand, voters seem to have believed Trump’s promises that once in power he would end the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East – if he could do it without confronting the arms industry and the military – and that he would spend the billions going there – however he could do it – on rural areas neglected by the Democrats.

Another segment that the Democrats expected votes but did not take to the polls was the 65+ age group, who cannot access the health system and are struggling to make ends meet. If not as much as in our country, pensions were also influential in the US elections.

One more surprise: it seems Harris increased the female votes of the Democrats, but she also carried the male votes to Trump at the same rate. Even Trump’s vice-presidential candidate JD Vance’s shameful insult of “childless cat ladies” didn’t help Harris.

The Elon Musk factor

The New York Times suggests that Trump’s result was also influenced by explicit support of Elon Musk. His 230 million followers on the social media platform “X” – formerly Twitter – and his $120 million campaign contribution seem to have had an impact.

Those who see the US elections as a simple “democracy lost populism won” are mistaken. The one who better touches the daily demands and nerve endings of the people wins.

As people’s demands are reduced to personal security and livelihood, they become vulnerable to manipulation and provocation.

How Trump victory might affect Türkiye?

Trump is known as an unpredictable politician. This may make the Turkish Foreign Ministry nervous. Turkish Presidency, on the other hand, may think differently politically. Despite Trump kicking Türkiye out of the F-35 program, playing a negative role in the economic crisis of Türkiye via his social media threats, and writing an insulting letter to the Turkish President, Erdoğan is ready to open a new page; Trump won the election at the end of the day.

So, what could differ for Türkiye in this Second Trump Administration?

Erdoğan’s biggest advantage for now is that Türkiye is not on Trump’s list of priorities; this will give Erdoğan time to observe the new era.

It would not be surprising if he urges Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky to give up its Russian-occupied territories in exchange for strong Western protection and more American investments. Türkiye would benefit from a de-escalation in the Black Sea.

How he will stop Israel is doubtful. But it should not be forgotten that he once persuaded Arab countries to have relations with Israel through the Abraham Accords. It must be remembered that Trump does not want to engage in unprofitable business.

I don’t think he will immediately abandon military cooperation with the PKK’s affiliates in Syria, which is necessary for Israel’s security and as a buffer against Iran. However, Turkey’s geopolitical importance has been rediscovered since the Russia-Ukraine war; a bargain is possible.