Pax Trumpiana and the Turkish Guarantorship of Trump’s Gaza Plan

On October 13, Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan signed a Declaration of Intent in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, alongside U.S. President Donald Trump, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, and Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, pledging a commitment to “joint implementation.”

The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas—achieved with Trump’s assertive involvement on behalf of the U.S. and with Türkiye’s contribution—should be seen as a major turning point, with the potential to transform first into peace in Gaza, and then into peace across the Middle East.

If the so-called “Trump Peace,” or in Latin, Pax Trumpiana, succeeds and genuinely brings peace and prosperity to the region, Türkiye will also share in that success.
As of today, few want to consider the possibility—but if this process, like many before it, ends up sabotaged, all that will remain is yesterday’s “Trump Show.”
As the saying goes: Success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan.

The Right to Live—for Both Israelis and Palestinians

The full title of the document is “The Trump Declaration for Enduring Peace and Prosperity.  It aims to ensure peace, security, stability, and opportunity “for all peoples in the region, including Palestinians and Israelis.”
Within this framework, the three Muslim leaders—Erdoğan, Sisi, and Al Thani—affirm that:

“A lasting peace should be one in which both Palestinians and Israelis can live in prosperity, where basic human rights are upheld, security is guaranteed, and dignity is preserved.”

They also welcomed “friendly and mutually beneficial relations between Israel and its regional neighbors.”

Did the phrase “friendly and mutually beneficial relations with Israel’s neighbors” catch your attention?
You might be thinking—what, like with Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria?
This is where we find ourselves clinging to what the Bosniac leader Alija Izzetbegoviç said as he was signing the Dayton Agreement: “It may not be a just peace, but it is more just than a continuation of war”.  The fish translation of a Turkish proverb goes: Showing death to make settle for malaria; Pax Trumpiana has essentially offered a choice between death and accepting a lesser evil.

This was the price paid to halt Israel’s total annihilation campaign that began with Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack and extended from Gaza to threatening Ramallah.

The End of Support for Hamas?

The three Muslim leaders also signed onto a commitment to:

“Eradicate all forms of extremism and radicalization.”

Does this imply that Qatar, especially after Israel’s September 9 attacks, has ended its longstanding hosting of Hamas?
President Erdoğan had previously declared Hamas a national liberation movement in the face of Netanyahu’s devastating Gaza campaign.
However, despite high-level contacts—especially through Turkish Intelligence (MİT) Chief İbrahim Kalın’s role in ceasefire negotiations—there have been no known Hamas facilities remaining in Türkiye since October 7.

A detail that went unnoticed in the flurry of October 13 developments:
On the morning of the agreement, following a hostage exchange between Israel and Hamas, the group publicly confirmed—as outlined in the Pax Trumpiana plan on September 29—that it would not be part of Gaza’s post-war administration.

The Pax Trumpiana framework already envisions Gaza as a demilitarized zone, with security to be maintained by a peacekeeping force composed of Muslim nations’ troops.

The Pax Trumpiana Show

You’re probably familiar with the Latin phrase Pax Romana—the Roman Peace.
It referred to the Roman Empire’s use of military and administrative power to impose peace among rival leaders and provinces—often through force.

Pax Trumpiana is quite similar, though laced with arrogance and a dose of public humiliation.
What about yesterday’s spectacle, where Trump lined up more than twenty world leaders behind him like statues and made them wait for half an hour as props for his grandstanding?

At least Erdoğan wasn’t among those standing on that stage.

Let’s say Egyptian President Sisi stood beside him as the host—what about the fact that the podium bore the U.S. Presidential Seal, as if Trump were the host of the summit?

Or consider what happened hours earlier in the Israeli Knesset:
Trump told Prime Minister Netanyahu to “stand up,” which he did, praised him with “This guy is amazing,” and then asked Israeli President Herzog to pardon Netanyahu’s corruption charges.
While doing so, he turned to Israeli MPs—many of whom already saw themselves in a magnified light—and warned:

“If I didn’t give you weapons, you wouldn’t be able to lift a finger.”

The Wolf Survives the Winter, but…

Has Erdoğan forgotten what his “friend” Trump did to him—and to Türkiye—in the past?
The F-35 exclusion, the currency crisis he triggered, or that arrogant “Don’t be a fool”  letter he still proudly displays in his museum?

Today, Trump praises Erdoğan by saying, “He never lets me down; he always supports me when I need him”—
perhaps a flattering comment that dazzles those who see praising Erdoğan as a political insurance policy for their futures.

But Erdoğan would do well to interpret this as just another Pax Trumpiana maneuver—for Türkiye’s own good.
Because one day, Trump may well say:

“I’ll sell you F-35s for a ton of money, but in return, I need your rare earth elements against China.”

Another Turkish saying goes: The wolf survives the winter but never forgets the cold she suffered.

And it’s worth remembering.