For some time now, Ankara has been pushing itself to be included in regional game plans by exercising its capacity to disrupt if excluded. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan is talking with his EU colleagues in a recent meeting in Warsaw.
In geopolitics, power is no longer measured solely by having a seat at the table, but by one’s ability to disrupt it if excluded.
Today, Türkiye is demonstrating precisely that: an increasingly agile power whose influence cannot be ignored, even when it is not formally included.
Some nations are invited to shape the game. Others find themselves on the menu. But a rare few can change the outcome without ever being asked to join. Türkiye has entered that category—disrupting regional balances, vetoing alliances, and dictating terms in theaters from the Eastern Mediterranean to Central Africa.
And it’s doing so not just through official diplomacy, but through a less visible—but no less formidable—force: its revamped National Intelligence Organization (MİT), which now operates as a proactive, multi-domain strategic asset.
The Eastern Mediterranean: A return after exclusion
Few cases exemplify this shift better than those in the Eastern Mediterranean. When the EastMed Gas Forum (EMGF) was formed in 2019, Türkiye was notably excluded. Greece, Southern Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, and their European allies sought to carve out a new energy architecture without Ankara.
Initially, this appeared to work. Türkiye was isolated diplomatically. But within a few years, cracks emerged:
• Pipeline projects lacked financing without Türkiye’s logistical cooperation.
• Regional energy diplomacy failed to evolve into a viable security structure.
• Politicized alliances became inefficient and brittle.
The 2023 Gaza crisis, Ankara’s renewed rapprochement with Cairo, and European anxiety over energy security have now re-centered Türkiye in the equation. Backchannel efforts are underway to reintegrate Türkiye into a revamped regional framework. I write this from Rabat, where discreet discussions are taking shape—with Türkiye not as an outsider, but as a potential process leader.
Turkish moves to disrupt the game
Türkiye’s disruptive capacity is not limited to diplomacy. It is tactical, strategic, and deeply rooted in the field:
• Libya: Turkish drones and the Turkish intelligence (MİT) operatives helped turn the tide in favor of the Tripoli government, halting General Haftar’s advance. Ankara now engages with both sides—its presence accepted, even necessary.
• Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan’s 2020 military success over Armenia was bolstered by Turkish support—not only militarily but also via intelligence and strategic planning. Russian acquiescence was secured; France and the OSCE were left on the sidelines.
• Russia–Ukraine: Türkiye has brokered prisoner swaps, safeguarded grain corridors, and hosted backchannel talks in Istanbul between Russian and American intelligence services, positioning itself as an indispensable intermediary.
• Africa: In Somalia, Niger, and Chad, Turkish influence is expanding across defense, humanitarian, and economic domains. MİT and Turkish development agencies are filling vacuums left by former colonial powers, particularly France. Turkish entrepreneurs, meanwhile, are offering a counterweight to China’s dominance.
Disrupting is one thing, building is another
In other regions, too, Ankara has made its presence felt:
• Iraq and Syria: Targeted Turkish strikes have disrupted PKK/YPG operations, complicating U.S.-backed efforts to institutionalize Kurdish control zones. Diplomatic negotiations are underway to stabilize the region, now with Turkish terms on the table.
• Hamas and Gaza: Despite being excluded from formal ceasefire talks, Türkiye’s ties to Hamas make it a key behind-the-scenes influencer in any sustainable truce.
• NATO Expansion: Türkiye delayed Finland and Sweden’s NATO bids until its security concerns were addressed, showcasing its ability to block consensus within Western institutions—until it got results.
From disruption to design: a critical choice
Türkiye’s foreign policy today is no longer defined by alignment but by autonomy. It operates through statecraft, intelligence, commerce, and culture—all woven into a complex, multipolar web.
But this disruptive model faces a sustainability test.
Two paths lie ahead:
1- Remain a tactical spoiler, forcing inclusion by breaking exclusionary systems.
2- Become a strategic designer, using their leverage to build inclusive, functional, and win-win frameworks.
Türkiye appears increasingly inclined toward the second option—transitioning from spoiler to shaper. But it must strike a careful balance.
If Ankara overplays its hand, it risks becoming isolated—not because it lacks power, but because others may no longer want to play. To be indispensable, a country must not only be strong but also constructive, predictable, and respected.
Power to break the game and build the table
Türkiye has proven it can break into arenas where it has been excluded. But the real measure of leadership is not in toppling others’ tables, but in building one where others want to sit.
It is no longer enough to be disruptive. The world is looking for countries that can mediate, design, and stabilize. If Türkiye can blend its strategic intelligence, deterrence capacity, and regional legitimacy, it may become not just a key player, but a trusted host.
Because in the new global order, true power lies not in being heard, but in being sought out.
