“NATO’s Outreach to the Middle East via Turkey and Trump’s Two Key Meetings”

The Western defense alliance NATO wants its members to increase military spending at the July 7-8 Ankara Summit. But this is not simply about persuading European allies to dig deeper into their pockets if they fear Russia. The “NATO 3.0” doctrine, which will dominate the agenda as 32 leaders gather in Ankara under the hosting of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, also represents an effort to extend NATO’s strategic reach into the Middle East, the Black Sea, and the Caucasus.

One of the clearest signs of this shift will be U.S. President Donald Trump’s meetings in Ankara with two non-NATO leaders invited personally by Erdoğan. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has become a regular participant in NATO summits since Russia launched its invasion in 2022. This time, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa will also be in Ankara. Trump is scheduled to meet both Zelenskyy and al-Sharaa on Wednesday, July 8. Reports indicate that, apart from Erdoğan, these will be Trump’s only bilateral meetings during the summit.

The Ankara Summit will also bring together leaders from regions stretching from the Asia-Pacific to the Persian Gulf, from the European Union leadership to Azerbaijan.

“Operation Turquoise” in Ankara

Before examining the geopolitical implications, it is worth looking at how the NATO Summit is affecting Ankara and its residents, because while the meeting aims to reshape global political and military balances, it is the people of Ankara who are bearing much of its burden.

Security measures that began three months ago under the Interior Ministry’s “Operation Turquoise” have effectively placed the capital under extraordinary restrictions over the past week. Nearly 70,000 personnel—including 48,841 police officers, 7,447 gendarmerie troops, 639 cyber-security specialists, and support staff—have been deployed across the city of five million. Roads leading to the airports, the Presidential Complex where the summit will be held, and the Ankara Congress Center have been closed in successive stages.

The disruption goes beyond traffic. Parliament, located at the heart of the security zone, decided not to convene on July 7, 8, or 9. Hundreds of people have been detained, including members of civil society organizations and even journalists. Although no official explanation has been given, the government clearly wants to prevent anti-NATO demonstrations. On July 5, police forcefully dispersed a protest in Ankara, leaving several people injured and detained.

NATO’s expansion into the Middle East is proving anything but painless.

Not Only the Middle East

The strategic expansion is not limited to the Middle East. It also encompasses the Black Sea, the Caucasus, and beyond.

The non-NATO leaders invited to Ankara by Erdoğan illustrate this broader vision.

Within the framework of the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative (ICI), launched during NATO’s 2004 Istanbul Summit at Turkey’s proposal, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan will meet with his counterparts from Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain. The objective is to link Syria’s reconstruction to NATO’s sphere of influence and Gulf capital.

Significant developments are also unfolding in Iraq. Shortly after National Intelligence Organization’s (MIT)  Chief İbrahim Kalın met both Iraqi government officials and representatives of the Kurdistan Regional Government, Erdoğan’s chief legal adviser Mehmet Uçum announced that framework legislation aimed at a political solution to the Kurdish issue through the PKK’s disarmament would be submitted to Parliament by the end of July. His description of the moment as a “point of no return,” made immediately before the NATO Summit, signals a development with implications extending far beyond Turkey to the entire Middle East.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will also attend the summit. Trump has made little effort to conceal his ambition of creating a transport corridor bearing his own name—TRIPP—along the Armenia-Iran border through the Zangezur corridor, giving the United States, Turkey, and Azerbaijan direct access to Central Asia via Turkey.

Turkey Moves from the Periphery to the Center

Stepping back to view the broader picture, these developments form part of a chain of geopolitical events:

• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 demonstrated that Black Sea security—guarded by Turkey under the 1936 Montreux Convention—cannot be separated from the security of Eastern Europe.
• Hamas’ attack on Israel in 2023 was followed by Israel’s devastating military campaign in Gaza, carried out with open U.S. support and still continuing against the Palestinian population.
• In 2024, Syria’s regime collapsed after 13 years of civil war, while Israel assassinated leaders of the Iran-backed Hezbollah and Hamas movements.
• In 2025, Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a peace agreement in Washington, brokered by Trump, while Israel, backed by the United States, attacked Iran.
• In 2026, the conflict escalated into direct war between Israel and the United States on one side and Iran on the other, accompanied by Iranian retaliation against Gulf states and Israel, as well as Israel’s military entry into Lebanon.

At the very center of all these interconnected crises stands Turkey—the only NATO member bordering every one of these conflict zones.

Alongside the NATO rapid reaction role already assigned to the Third Corps headquarterted in Istanbul, plans are also underway to integrate the Sixth Corps headquarted in  Adana, near the Syrian border, into NATO’s wartime command structure.

Together, these developments are moving Turkey’s role within NATO from the alliance’s periphery toward its strategic center.

Erdoğan’s European Expectations

The Ankara Summit is likely to reinforce Turkey’s transition from a peripheral to a central actor within NATO.

The summit will focus on three principal issues:

• Increasing and sharing defense spending while strengthening allied solidarity;
• Expanding defense-industrial capabilities;
• Developing NATO’s strategic role in the Middle East and the Black Sea.

Turkey’s importance has grown significantly under each of these headings over the past several years. Particularly noteworthy is the rapid progress of Turkey’s defense industry, accelerated by sanctions imposed by NATO allies in response to Turkey’s military operations that contributed to the change of regime in Syria.

Erdoğan believes that, as Europe’s defense increasingly depends on Turkey, Ankara should, in return, be allowed to participate in the emerging European security architecture without being blocked by the European Union’s unanimity-based political mechanisms.

European Council President Antonio Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will both be in Ankara. Erdoğan is seeking to secure a place for Turkey within Europe’s future security order through NATO.

Full EU membership remains unrealistic for the time being, given both shortcomings in Turkey’s democratic standards and persistent prejudice against Turkey within parts of the European Union. But could a much deeper level of economic integration become achievable?

The Ankara NATO Summit may still have some surprises in store.