The Middle East Is Being Reshaped: The Türkiye–Saudi Arabia–Pakistan Triangle

Thus, exactly one month after hosting the NATO Leaders’ Summit in Ankara, President Erdoğan signed another agreement on the same day that will affect the geostrategic balance in the Middle East. Türkiye’s Directorate of Communications announced that the agreement “stipulates that an armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against all of them.” This is a reference to Article 51 of the United Nations Charter concerning the right of self-defense.According to information obtained from official sources in Ankara, it is emphasized that this situation does not contradict Türkiye’s NATO membership, that NATO has “no alternative,” and that, on the contrary, this is a “complementary” structure that enables the sharing of the security burden. Diplomatic sources say that each country will remain within its own alliance structures and that the agreement will also be open to the participation of other countries in the region.This emphasis means that the answer to the question, “Is an Islamic NATO being established?” is “No.”The joint statement on the agreement, whose full text has not yet been published, indicates the emergence of a new political and military center of power, as cooperation among the three states will extend beyond the existing diplomatic, defense and intelligence structures to include the defense industry.Pakistan Is a Nuclear Power

Türkiye, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia all have important geographical positions and characteristics that can create a force multiplier when combined. In addition, all three countries have recently shared an important political common ground in their efforts to prevent conflicts, from the Russia-Ukraine war to Israel’s attacks on Gaza and the war with Iran. Beyond that:

• Türkiye is a NATO member with access to the Mediterranean, Eastern Europe, the Black Sea and the Caucasus. It is the industrial center of its region and has made significant advances in defense industry technologies in recent years.
• Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s leading oil and natural gas producers and has the potential to provide financial support for joint energy, transportation, trade and defense projects.
• Pakistan borders Iran and Afghanistan, as well as India and the Indian Ocean, has access to Central Asia, and possesses nuclear weapons.

If these capabilities can be mobilized jointly, as envisaged in the Mecca Agreement, it is clear that they will limit the freedom of action of some countries in the region.

Israel, which has already reacted openly, is at the top of that list. It can be seen that the agreement will create a balancing weight against both Israel and Iran in the broader Middle East, and against India in South Asia.

The Terror-Free Türkiye Dimension

By its scope, the agreement has the potential to bring Iraq, which is under the impact of the U.S. occupation, and Syria, which is trying to recover from civil war, and perhaps Lebanon as well, under its umbrella.

The Terror-Free Türkiye framework law, submitted to the Turkish Grand National Assembly two days before the agreement and expected to be voted on in the coming days, occupies an important place in the process of reshaping the Middle East. The PKK’s gradual transformation from an armed threat in Türkiye, Iraq and Syria into an actor participating in open politics could accelerate energy, transportation and industrial investments throughout the region.

Within this framework, projects such as the Development Road, which is planned between Iraq and Türkiye and will provide a secure highway and pipeline route between the Persian Gulf and Europe and Central Asia; the Iraq-Syria oil pipeline; and the New Hejaz Railway extending through Türkiye, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Oman could become a reality.

In addition, the Mecca Agreement has the characteristic of being an attempt by the countries of the region to redefine their relations with the United States and Western Europe at the level of strategic autonomy and to give priority to their own interests provided that it can be implemented and does not fall apart almost immediately.