Özgür Özel Leaves the CHP to Form a New Party, with a Reserve Party Also Ready

The expected has happened. Speaking at the CHP parliamentary group meeting on 21 July, which he described as arriving “with the sadness of a farewell whose time has come,” Özgür Özel announced that he and his allies would establish a new political party.

The party is expected to be formally launched by the beginning of next week, with around 85 MPs resigning from the CHP to join it. That would immediately make it the main opposition force in the Turkish Grand National Assembly (TBMM), pushing the CHP down to fourth—or possibly even fifth—place behind the DEM Party and perhaps the MHP. In other words, if Özel moves quickly and no new legal obstacle emerges, he could well return to the same parliamentary chamber, speaking from the same podium next Tuesday—but this time as the leader of a different party.

A great deal, however, can still happen within a week.

Political balances will shift

The creation of a new party will affect far more than the seating arrangement in the General Assembly or the distribution of committee seats. It is set to reshape the political landscape in Ankara.

Viewed from another perspective, this represents a trauma reminiscent of Türkiye’s long-hoped-to-be-over era of party closures. Then, as now, judicial rulings were used to reshape political balances.

The court’s decision to reinstate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as CHP chairman—after declaring the party’s 2023 congress legally null and void is unprecedented in its political impact. Yet despite its extraordinary nature, it remains, at its core, an example of judicial intervention in politics.

The consequence has been the birth of a new party. It emerges from within the CHP, but not in opposition to it. On the contrary, its declared aim is ultimately to return to the party if circumstances permit.

“We are not changing shirts; we are putting on a shirt of fire,” Özel told supporters, as chants of “Power ! Power!” echoed through the parliamentary group hall.

That objective, however, will not be as easy to achieve as it sounds.

The CHP remains, the new party is the reserve

For now, the ruling AK Party appears unlikely to reopen parliamentary immunity files, particularly as the momentum behind the “Terror-Free Türkiye” process has accelerated and the DEM Party has shown sensitivity on the issue.

Another challenge will be how quickly the new party can fulfil the legal requirements to contest elections, and whether the current enthusiasm among Özel’s supporters can be translated into lasting political support.

Özel and his team expect roughly one million CHP members to resign and join the new party once its founding petition is submitted to the Interior Ministry. At the same time, several influential CHP mayors are known to prefer remaining within the CHP and continuing their political struggle there.

Preparations for what might be called a “reserve party” also appear to have reached their final stage. The logic resembles the earlier BDP formula, which maintained parliamentary representation in case the DEM Party was banned. Likewise, should the AK Party and MHP agree with either the DEM Party or the CHP on an early election, having another party that already possesses the legal right to contest elections would allow MPs to transfer there if necessary.

Özel’s tactical calculation

Özel’s strategic reasoning is straightforward.

If the Court of Cassation upholds the ruling declaring the 2023 CHP congress null and void, neither he nor his team will have any political future within the CHP. It is also well known in Ankara that Kılıçdaroğlu has asked Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş not to recognise Özel as leader of the CHP parliamentary group.

Özel also explained his tactical reasoning during his group address.

Criticising Kılıçdaroğlu’s proposal to begin a party congress process in September and conclude it in April, he argued, in essence: “While the AK Party is working to secure Erdoğan’s re-election, should we spend seven months setting our own supporters against one another and making fools of ourselves?”

Is the new party the continuation of the CHP?

“This is not really a separation,” Özel insists.

He says the new movement will remain faithful to the founding principles of the CHP and speaks openly of one day returning home. Yet he also acknowledges that a decisive crossroads has been reached.

That crossroads appears to confront not only Özel and his supporters, but also Kılıçdaroğlu and his camp—and, indeed, what might be called the broader CHP family.

His declaration that “we will not become controlled opposition” also seems to carry an unmistakable allusion to Kılıçdaroğlu’s long-standing description of the failed 15 July 2016 coup attempt as a “controlled coup.”

Özel’s effort to broaden the party’s appeal beyond the traditional CHP base is equally clear in his invitation: “Our doors are open to everyone who has no problem with Atatürk and with the Republic.”

When Kılıçdaroğlu became CHP chairman in 2010, he borrowed Hannibal’s famous words—“We shall either find a way or make one”—to describe his determination to defeat then-prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The phrase, attributed to the Carthaginian commander as he crossed the Alps on his march toward Rome, has now become Özel’s own slogan.

Declaring that he was “listening to the voice of the street,” Özel has chosen to forge a new path—and embarked on a new political march.