The yellow in the map represents the municipalities that the AKP has won in the 2024 elections the red ones represent the CHP’s victory. The map was predominantly yellow in 2019 elections. Is this “reddening” of the map suggest a new era for Türkiye?
The disarray following the CHP’s electoral victory is not only evident in previously AK Party-held municipalities but also within the AKP headquarters and local branches, portraying a sobering sight.
The last-minute traders or those attempting to shred documents, the significant effort by Mehmet Uçum, one of the President’s Advisors, to hinder the complete dismantling of the fear barrier with the warning “We’re keeping tabs on you, our eyes are on you,” holds profound meaning.
Nevertheless, a new chapter is unfolding. After President Tayyip Erdoğan assigned blame for AKP’s unprecedented fall behind CHP to certain figures within the party, we’ll collectively witness what ensues next. This will partially extend to the pro-government media as well.
As the dust settles, it becomes increasingly evident that the outcome of the March 31 election wasn’t solely attributable to the missteps of Erdoğan and the AKP but rather, these missteps facilitated the favorable outcome for the CHP.
When the CHP undergoes change
Following the significant and strategic electoral defeat in May 2023, the CHP navigated through tumultuous debates and underwent a change in leadership. At the November 5, Özgür Özel ascended to leadership in an election where Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the CHP’s Chairman, also stood as a candidate. İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu also supported Özel.
Özer Sencar, Director of MetroPoll Research Company, who accurately forecasted the March 31 election results, made a noteworthy analogy and observation in a comprehensive YouTube interview we conducted on April 4th.
Following the 1971 coup in Türkiye, the CHP underwent a leadership change in 1972, bringing in Bülent Ecevit, who directly addressed the electorate’s demands instead of resigning without competing, replacing İsmet İnönü, the hero of the Independence War. The new era in the CHP bore its first fruit in the 1973 elections, where the CHP emerged as the leading party with 33 percent of the votes. Subsequently, in the 1977 elections, under Ecevit’s leadership, the CHP garnered 41.4 percent of the vote.
In 2024, the CHP secured the second-highest vote share with 37.7 percent.
Sencar now asserts, “The change has been advantageous for the CHP.”
When the CHP changes, Türkiye changes too.
The new era
The transformation within the CHP has ushered in a new era for Türkiye as well.
It’s also pertinent to note the claims that the CHP has begun to “oppose like an opposition” instead of making moves that have favored the government for many years, and for the first time in the 2024 elections, implemented ballot protection measures, as stated by Özer Sencar.
For the first time since 2002, the CHP surpassed the AKP in the national vote, securing 35.5 percent.
However, this election outcome isn’t the sole indicator of the new era. Presently, the rule of law, the struggle for an independent judiciary, and the fight for an independent press face a new litmus test.
Despite remaining in power with the support of the MHP and holding the majority in the Parliament, Erdogan’s moral high ground, which was tarnished in the 2019 local elections and further diminished in the 2023 elections due to severe economic crises and the arrogance of looking down on the people, sustained further blows in 2024.
Redrawing the map
A notable feature of the 2024 local elections – not exclusive to the CHP but encompassing the opposition in general – was breaking free from the spiral of hopelessness that ensued after the 2023 elections.
However, the new era shouldn’t be confined solely to the “reddening” of the map on election night.
If the CHP aims to overcome the AKP in the forthcoming general elections, among the principles it should adhere to are implementing measures to prevent corruption or irregularities in the municipalities it governs, prioritizing action based on grassroots demands irrespective of party affiliations, and perhaps most crucially, steering clear of the arrogance and favoritism corroding the Erdogan government from within.
