Many of you will recall the movie “Groundhog Day” starring Bill Murray as a depressed weatherman who keeps reliving the same day. In this brilliant comedy, the lead character overcomes his predicament by changing his own behavior. While everything else stays the same, he keeps adjusting his own actions until he gets it right. Democrats in the U.S. failed to draw the same lesson and lost the gubernatorial race in Virginia despite enjoying a 10-point lead during the 2020 presidential elections.
It should be no surprise that the Democratic incumbent Terry McAuliffe lost against a political outsider Glenn Youngkin who managed to distance himself from Donald Trump while focusing on policy issues. While McAuliffe tried to scare his constituents into voting for him and kept doing the same thing over and over again, his competitor assumed a more dynamic and bipartisan approach offering much-needed solutions on education and other issues Virginia is facing.
There were signs
The Republicans did well in New Jersey as well. While the Democrats won the vote, results show that a traditionally blue state might soon turn red. Most analysts interpret these election results as a surprise for the Democratic party that is indicative of an early decline of President Biden’s popularity. Assessments that these outcomes come as a surprise are mistaken since there were plenty of signs on the wall that traditional democratic politics is on the decline.
One of the most crucial signs came after the Afghanistan withdrawal fiasco. It was painfully clear that the Biden administration would pay a hefty price for this debacle domestically as well as abroad. The ultimate price the Democrats will pay for these mistakes will become more visible after the 2022 Congressional midterm elections. But unless the Joe Biden administration manages to break this cycle, Democrats are likely to lose both houses in Congress, as well as the White House two years later.
Impact on Turkish American relations
These dynamics will resonate seriously with the state of Turkish American relations. Besides the White House, a pivotal determinant in Turkish-American bilateral relations is U.S. Congress. Especially the Turkish request to approve the procurement of F-16 fighter jets and the modernization of the existing fleet of Turkey (in the absence of the F-35 that were seized by the Congress) will become a lot more difficult if Republicans take over both houses. If this shift in American politics occurs, even presumably excellent relations on the executive level will not solve the problems as Biden would end up a lame-duck himself.
But even before the midterms, this Republican momentum will come at a price with the Biden administration losing global support. With images of the Afghanistan debacle still fresh in the memories of American friends and allies, domestic uncertainty in American politics will not go unnoticed. The promises of the Biden Administration to rebuild American international standing, revive global cooperation and enforce respect for shared values carry less weight now and allow populist politicians to rally their bases in the United States and abroad.
Common mistakes in fighting populism
A major political problem of our century appears to be authoritarian and populist politicians winning ground globally. This dynamic coupled with the decline in the quality of global leaders does not bode well for the future. Sadly, our democracies are not resilient to the populist virus because such leaders know how to weaponize democracy, and legitimize their authoritarianism through the ballot.
They derive the legitimacy of their divisive politics by appealing to religious and racial sentiments and they successfully claim exclusivity on patriotism. Perhaps most importantly, recent years should offer clear lessons for liberal politicians that their populist counterparts will not be hesitant to resort to repression when their power is challenged.
Political parties that are trying to push back populist competitors need to change gears. They cannot expect to win elections by merely demonizing their populist opponents. A better strategy would be to copy Youngkin’s playbook who emphasizes being an outsider while pointing out his business credentials and offering concrete and innovative policy proposals.
If liberal politicians all over the globe insist on repeating the same mistakes, we should stop expecting different results. And frankly, if we don’t get this right, we will be losing a lot more than elections alone.
