Is President Tayyip Erdoğan pursuing a ‘lifelong’ rule?

The time has come to ask whether President Tayyip Erdoğan is pursuing a “lifelong” rule. No, not only because of his statement during the peak of the ruling Justice and Develpment Party’s (AKP) election campaign, saying, “This is my last election.” This wasn’t the first time Erdoğan had uttered “This election is my last,” subtly implying that “difficult days are approaching”” after him.

The question of whether Erdoğan is seeking a lifetime rule gained significance after the recent statement by AKP Vice President and former Justice Minister Bekir Bozdağ.

“Nobody knows what tomorrow will bring.  Perhaps when the time comes, the Parliament may decide to renew the elections, opening the path for our President to run again,” Bozdağ said on his social media account.

Article 101 of the Constitution states, “A person can be elected as President at most twice.” However, Bozdağ, with his mention of “election renewal” or “early elections,” is referring to the possibility embedded in Article 116, Paragraph 3, which allows the President to be re-elected even if there is a quarter left of their five-year term, provided that the Parliament decides to renew the elections.

Is it a lifelong presidency?

In other words, if the Parliament decides to renew the elections, even if there is a quarter left of the President’s five-year term, the President is considered to have not stayed in office during that time, making it possible for them to run again.

In fact, Erdoğan’s candidacy in the 2023 elections was already debatable according to Article 101 of the Constitution. Former Speaker of the Parliament, Mustafa Şentop, due to the change in the Constitution in 2017, Erdoğan’s election as President in 2014 would not count, and only his election in 2018 would be considered as his first term. Although it could have been taken to the Constitutional Court, at that time, the then-allies, CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and İYİ Party leader Meral Akşener, took up the ‘We will defeat him at the ballot box’ attitude, and Erdoğan was elected as President for the third time.

If three terms of presidency are not enough, what could be the solution?

So, how can Erdoğan extend his presidency beyond three terms, potentially for a lifetime?

When will that time come?

The first thing that comes to mind is a constitutional amendment. Is Erdoğan telling his voters, ‘Give me Istanbul, show our strength again, then let’s go for a new Constitution’?

A new Constitution would either involve making meaningful additions to the AK Party-MHP alliance in the Parliament to secure a two-thirds majority (400 votes out of 600), or risking further damage to the exit strategy from the economic crisis by going to a referendum with a new election economy period.

The possibility of the Parliament making an early election decision, as highlighted by Bozdağ, would require a three-fifths majority of the total member count, which is 360 votes, according to Article 116, Paragraph 1 of the Constitution. Currently, this is a scenario for an early election, even if Turkey’s political and economic conditions allow it, but as Bozdağ himself said, it’s a matter of ‘when the time comes.’

When will that time come? When Mehmet Şimşek’s crisis exit program is completed? Or perhaps a quarter before the 2028 elections?

Already Early election negotiations?

We cannot predict what will change by that time, but in the current situation, the Cumhur Alliance parties (AKP, 264; MHP, 49; Hüda-Par 4, Yeniden Refah 4, DSP 1) have a total of 322 votes, assuming all of them vote in favor. This leaves 38 votes.

On the opposition side, CHP has 129, DEM Party has 52, İYİ Party has 38, Saadet has 20 (Including Gelecek Party), DEVA has 15, DP and TİP each have 3, and Emek and DBP parties each have 2 members. There are also 7 independent members.

Therefore, for Erdoğan to keep the Cumhur Alliance parties aligned for a lifelong presidency and to get support from the opposition front with the approval of his strategic partner, MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli, a very tight and concession-filled bargaining process is needed.

During this process, Erdoğan may need to keep his doors open to everyone, from DEM to İYİ Party.

Bozdağ’s early election preparations, following Erdoğan’s ‘last election’ words, are already opening this negotiation door, urging not to take a definitive stance against him already.