Turkish Defense Minister Güler stated that due to shifting geopolitical dynamics, the US could reinstate Türkiye in the F-35 program despite its possession of Russian S-400 missiles. “These developments, potentially strengthening Türkiye’s air defense capabilities, appear intrinsically linked to NATO’s “wartime scenario” preparations amid concerns of expanding global conflict.”
Turkish Defense Minister Güler stated that due to shifting geopolitical dynamics, the US could reinstate Türkiye in the F-35 program despite its possession of Russian S-400 missiles.
Turkish National Defense Minister Yaşar Güler announced that the US might readmit Türkiye to the F-35 sales program despite its possession of Russian-made S-400 missiles, confirming that a new application has been submitted for F-35s.
Güler made this announcement while defending his ministry’s 2025 budget at the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Commission on November 26.
The changes extend beyond F-35s, with significant developments in Eurofighter and F-16 acquisitions, signaling shifting defense dynamics with the US and NATO.
When I consulted a defense source yesterday morning (November 26) about these developments, they remarked, “The situation has evolved significantly since this morning” – a noteworthy observation.
These developments cannot be viewed in isolation from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte’s November 25 visit to President Tayyip Erdoğan, and NATO Military Committee Chairman Admiral Rob Bauer’s call that same evening for the business sector to prepare for potential conflict scenarios with Russia and China. We’ll address this shortly, but it’s worth noting that Defense Minister Güler, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, and the President’s Chief Advisor for Security and Foreign Policy Çağatay Kılıç participated in Erdoğan’s meeting with Rutte.
New F-35 application
The day following this strategically significant meeting, Güler addressed parliamentary questions about F-35s and S-400s:
“Regarding the F-35s… We have six aircraft there. Now the Americans… After witnessing our capability to develop and fly the KAAN aircraft, their perspective has shifted. They’re now expressing willingness to provide F-35s.
We’re pursuing both the reinstatement of our production share and have expressed our intention to acquire 40 F-35s. In our recent discussions with the Americans regarding the S-400, they made various demands, all of which we rejected. Currently, provided the systems remain under our designated control, the Americans have withdrawn their objections to the S-400s.”
Güler indicated that while concrete progress hasn’t been achieved, discussions are ongoing.
This marks a significant shift, as until recently, both Ankara and Washington maintained that Türkiye’s F-35 procurement file was closed and discussions had ceased.
If the Biden administration has altered its position before leaving office, is this solely due to the KAAN project? We’ll explore this shortly. Let’s continue with the S-400 situation.
S-400 status
Defense Minister Güler revealed previously undisclosed details about the S-400s, now documented in parliamentary records:
“All S-400 deployment locations have been determined. The entire infrastructure, including underground facilities, has been completed and stands ready. Upon command, units will deploy to their designated regions, and the entire system will be operational within approximately twelve hours.
As you’re aware, this is an air defense system. Its activation would only be warranted in response to a severe air threat.”
This reveals:
1- The S-400s aren’t in immediate operational status but maintain ready deployment capability with completed infrastructure.
2- Activation would occur only in response to a “severe” threat – suggesting either external attacks involving US and NATO-standard aircraft and missiles, or internal security scenarios similar to July 15.
3- Full operational deployment requires a 12-hour window from decision to activation.
F-16 modernization and TUSAŞ
Minister Güler also disclosed unprecedented information about the latest model F-16 acquisitions from the US during the Parliamentary Commission session.
Türkiye’s removal from the F-35 program occurred during President Donald Trump’s administration following its S-400 purchase from Russia. After Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland sought NATO membership. President Tayyip Erdoğan conditioned his approval on enhanced cooperation against the PKK and new F-16 acquisitions from the US.
The agreement outlined Türkiye’s acquisition of 40 F-16 Viper jets, modernization kits for 79 existing F-16s, and what Güler termed “specialized munitions” for $23 billion; the complete inventory is available in this link. Güler revealed they’ve opted to forego the 79 modernization kits, with TUSAŞ undertaking production – necessitating certain technology transfers – reducing total costs to $7 billion. This inevitably recalls MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli’s reference to PKK’s devastating TUSAŞ attack following the “Öcalan Initiative.”
Güler optimistic about Eurofighter
Güler explained to parliamentarians that while Germany’s opposition to the Eurofighter acquisition hasn’t been fully resolved, he remains optimistic:
“As you might anticipate, we sought diversification. It’s always America… The Eurofighter represents a European consortium, comprising the UK, Italy, Spain, and France. While the UK, Italy, and Spain have approved, Germany’s coalition politics have prevented definitive approval. However, they’ve now indicated permit issuance. Our efforts continue, and we’ll provide updates as developments occur.”
Defense and diplomatic sources emphasize that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s October 19 Istanbul meeting with President Erdoğan significantly influenced Germany’s shifting position on the Eurofighter. During this meeting, both leaders agreed that disagreements over the Israel-Palestine issue shouldn’t impede progress in other areas.
The impact of Germany’s coalition collapse and February 23 early elections on the Eurofighter agreement remains uncertain. However, considering factors like the anticipated Second Trump Administration beginning January 20 and nuclear discussions regarding Ukraine, negative outcomes appear unlikely.
Strategic shifts
The Defense Minister attributes America’s changing F-35 position partly to KAAN’s successful development. Indeed, KAAN’s progress at TUSAŞ facilities, in collaboration with the UK, has influenced this shift. Additionally, the indigenous drones produced by TUSAŞ and BAYKAR (accelerated by US sanctions), Türkiye’s pioneering air defense initiative Steel Dome, TCG Anadolu’s construction, and the enhanced capabilities demonstrated by Bayraktar TB-3’s carrier operations have contributed to this evolution.
However, our source’s observation about the rapidly changing situation likely relates to escalating tensions along the Black Sea-Ukraine front, which Foreign Minister Fidan characterized as potential “global war.”
Despite ongoing disagreements regarding PKK cooperation in Syria, indicators suggest the Pentagon is reassessing Türkiye’s NATO role and its strategic position regarding Russia and Iran, though Trump’s potential impact remains uncertain.
These developments, potentially strengthening Türkiye’s air defense capabilities, appear intrinsically linked to NATO’s “wartime scenario” preparations amid concerns of expanding global conflict.
