When selecting the person and event of the year for 2024 in both domestic and foreign policy, establishing the criteria is the challenging part – everything else falls into place naturally. My criterion was simple: impact on the overall political trajectory.
When selecting the person and event of the year for 2024 in both domestic and foreign policy, establishing the criteria is the challenging part – everything else falls into place naturally.
My criterion was simple: impact on the overall political trajectory. Specifically, how an individual shaped the course of political developments in 2024, and which event altered the political landscape in ways that led to significant shifts in outcomes.
Through this lens, Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli emerges as the person of the year in domestic politics, while the opposition Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) historic victory over Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) in the March 31 local elections – their first such triumph in 22 years – stands as the event of the year.
Before delving into the details, let me highlight the most influential figure and event in international politics for 2024. In the global arena, Donald Trump dominated the political landscape, sending shockwaves through international relations even before taking office following his November victory. Meanwhile, Israel’s chain of assassinations emerged as the year’s defining event, destabilizing the entire Middle East and fundamentally reshaping regional dynamics.
Bahçeli: Architect of political shifts
MHP leader Bahçeli’s designation as political figure of the year extends beyond his surprising October 1 Parliament initiative – a move that caught even DEM Party members off guard – which culminated in facilitating meetings between DEM Party’s Pervin Buldan and Sırrı Süreyya Önder with PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan.
His political maneuvering in 2024 began with the release of a video on April 24, a critique of President Erdoğan following the People’s Alliance’s March 31 electoral defeat. This came just after Erdoğan’s April 23 meeting with CHP leader Özgür Özel, where constitutional reform support was discussed. Simultaneously, the Sinan Ateş murder investigation was heading in directions unfavorable to the MHP under CHP pressure. Through calculated interventions, Bahçeli successfully contained the Ateş case’s potential damage to the MHP while effectively derailing the budding “normalization” between Erdoğan and Özel.
His boldest move – proposing that the PKK leader address Parliament or having DEM Party convey Öcalan’s message about ending the conflict – was unprecedented, something even Erdoğan wouldn’t have contemplated.
March 31: A political watershed
The March 31 local elections emerged as the pivotal moment in domestic politics for 2024.
The CHP’s capture of 35 metropolitan and provincial municipalities – mostly from the AKP – marked their first ascendance to the top position in overall votes since the AKP’s rise to power in 2002. While the economic crisis and resulting cost-of-living challenges were the primary catalysts, the CHP’s leadership change following their 2023 defeat also proved significant.
The elections cemented Ekrem İmamoğlu of Istanbul and Mansur Yavaş of Ankara as major political figures while highlighting CHP voters’ centrist shift.
Following the defeat, Erdoğan’s self-criticism within the AKP group led to strategic moves, prompted by Bahçeli’s warnings, aimed at both distancing Kurdish voters from potential CHP influence and positioning himself for another presidential run.
Despite the CHP’s subsequent struggle to maintain momentum due to internal challenges, the March 31 elections fundamentally altered the domestic political equilibrium.
Israel’s strategic assassinations reshape regional power
Israel’s targeted assassination campaign, aimed at dismantling Iran’s regional influence network, began with a stunning strike against Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The operation took place in Tehran, where Haniyeh had traveled for Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration following Ibrahim Raisi’s death in a suspicious helicopter crash on May 19. On July 31, despite Iranian Revolutionary Guards’ protection, Haniyeh was eliminated. This came just a day after Hezbollah’s military commander was killed in Beirut.
The campaign reached a dramatic turning point on September 17 with an unprecedented technological operation: the simultaneous detonation of Hezbollah’s communication devices, effectively crippling thousands of operatives and their Iranian connections in an instant. The following day, during the funeral ceremonies, a second wave struck when militants’ radio systems were remotely triggered. The Mossad-linked assassination campaign continued its momentum with two more high-profile targets: Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, eliminated in an Israeli airstrike on September 27, and new Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on October 16.
These precision strikes dealt a devastating blow to Iran’s regional strategy, which had relied on proxy organizations across Palestine, Lebanon, and Syria, along with Revolutionary Guards support – all while a missile war continued in the background. With Russia’s attention diverted to its confrontation with NATO in Ukraine, Iran’s ability to prop up the Assad regime weakened significantly. Taking advantage of this power vacuum, HTS forces launched an offensive on December 1, ultimately entering Damascus after Bashar Assad fled to Russia on December 8.
Trump’s global impact: Even before taking office
In international politics, Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the November 5 election – surpassing even the most optimistic predictions – makes him the clear figure of the year.
Though his official inauguration isn’t until January 20, Trump’s influence is already reshaping global political dynamics. His agenda spans multiple critical fronts: from escalating Pacific trade tensions with China to African strategic competition, from the Russia-Ukraine conflict to relationships with European “allies,” and the delicate balance of power in the Middle East – each presenting opportunities for Trump to upend conventional diplomatic approaches.
The rightward political shift in key EU founding nations – France, Germany, and Italy – reflects both Trump’s growing global influence and his hardline stance on immigration, compounded by mounting concerns about Russian aggression in Europe. Vladimir Putin’s nuclear rhetoric has added a sobering dimension to these fears.
For Türkiye, two aspects of Trump’s foreign policy agenda are particularly consequential. First is his approach to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and second, his decision regarding continued U.S. military presence in Syria. This latter issue intertwines with several critical questions: whether U.S. support for the PKK’s Syrian affiliate will continue under the pretext of combating ISIS, and how this might affect Bahçeli’s newly initiated dialogue process with the PKK in Türkiye.
