The wildfires continue not only in the forests and on the shores of Turkey’s Aegean and Mediterranean regions, but also in every field. The fire in politics is visible when the seats in the cabinet of President Tayyip Erdoğan are shaken and the minister-lottery is played in Ankara. The fire in the field of foreign policy is also about illegal Afghan migration, which naturally fell into the background due to forest fires. The latest statement by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has put the Erdoğan administration in Ankara in trouble.
Or shall we call it the recent wave of irregular migration as a sort of troops deployment from Afghanistan? When Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) paused blasting Erdoğan for incompetence in fighting the wildfires and sent an angular message to the United States, such as “Your deals with Erdoğan won’t bind Turkey” if there is a secret deal to settle the last wave in Turkey. A fierce row on Afghan immigration started in Turkish politics in the middle of the terrible wildfires.
Although Kılıçdaroğlu apologized to the citizens for bringing up the issue amid the disaster, his justification was that it was now a national security issue. Interior Minister Süleyman Soylu responded to Kılıçdaroğlu with a 21-item statement that he concluded: “May Allah reform him”. In this way, for the first time, the Turkish public learned about the work of the Ministry of Interior on illegal immigration in a rather tidy manner. But what Soylu said did not exactly correspond to Kılıçdaroğlu’s claims. Fighting illegal immigration was only part of the opposition leader’s August 3 claims. Kılıçdaroğlu was mainly wondering if Erdoğan had agreed to the admission to Turkey of soldiers and civilians who had collaborated with the US in Afghanistan. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs had to make a statement about this at about the same time. Because Kılıçdaroğlu asked this question out of the blue, after what the US Secretary of State said at the press conference on August 2.
The US is looking for a place for its collaborators
Blinken said the following in a nutshell:
• There are Afghans who have been with us for twenty years, helping us. They rightly feel threatened by the withdrawal of US and allied forces. We will not leave them alone.
• We have given 73,000 immigrant visas to those who helped the USA and their families in the last thirteen years. Of these, 8,000 were issued in the last year.. We have started transporting some of the families to the US.
• Additionally, we pursue deals with third countries to ensure that eligible Afghans are dispatched quickly and held in safety while we conduct a rigorous vetting process.
• There are also Afghans who are not eligible to obtain visas, but who have helped us, and we will help them as well.
A reporter asked if the US Secretary of State meant Iran and Turkey when he said “third countries”.
Afghan refugees have been coming to Turkey come from Iran, some 4,000 km away. Iran gives almost invisible protection and the immigrants who flee from the Afghanistan border safely travel across Iran, a police state let go at the Turkish border. It is noteworthy that most of the recent arrivals are around the age of 20, at the age of military service, and some of them even dressed in military uniforms. In other words, the arrivals are not only civil society and media workers as Blinken implies, that is something observed.
There is an important distinction here. There are Afghan people, families who are indeed running for their lives from Taliban brutality, and in real need of protection. That is a humanitarian responsibility to provide shelter to them. Here, we are talking about an organization and operation that almost resembles a military deployment.
In any case, Blinken has not properly answered the question of the reporter. He just said the US does not want to leave the men working for them unprotected.
Ankara denies any consultation
The Americans are directly importing those who are “eligible” from Afghanistan. But it seeks places for those who are not “eligible” or vetting process are not completed; those who are still in doubt. They want them to stay in a safe place until then. Does the US consider Turkey as the haven for Afghans, who were US collaborators now fleeing the Taliban? That’s the question. This is what moves Kılıçdaroğlu to action. That’s why he warns the US that he will not recognize this agreement if he comes to power, in a language forcing the limits of the diplomatic language in state-to-state relations.
But Blinken’s words disturbed the Turkish government as well. Foreign Ministry Spokesman Tanju Bilgiç said on 3 August:
• “Turkey does not have the capacity to bear another refugee crisis for another country. We do not accept the US’ irresponsible decision taken without prior consultation.
• “The US may directly transport these people by plane. (…) The Turkish Nation cannot bear the burden of refugee crises resulting from the decisions undertaken by third countries.”
After that, it was revealed to the media that President Erdoğan’s Security and Foreign Policy Advisor (and Spokesman) İbrahim Kalın had a phone conversation with US President Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan on August 3. Afghanistan was also discussed between the two advisers; no details were given. But Ned Price of the State Department said on August 4 that they did not mean Turkey in particular.
A diplomacy wildfire
The US wants Turkey to stay in Afghanistan after it leaves, to host peace talks between the Taliban and the Afghan government, but at the same time to give shelter for collaborators fleeing the Taliban. Moreover, if we look at the Foreign Ministry statement, there was no “prior consultation” about the project before Blinken mentioned it. This situation also shows that there is no deal for the time being. At least, as far as we can deduce, there is no written or verbal agreement reflected in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs as well as the Ministry of Interior.
Even if this issue came up in Erdoğan’s one-on-one meeting with Biden within the framework of the June 14 NATO Summit in Brussels, he would certainly have conveyed it to Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Interior Minister Soylu. It should not even be brought to mind that the President discussed this issue with Biden and did not convey it to the relevant ministers.
This should be counted as a wildfire in the field of diplomacy. On the one hand, Erdoğan wants to have closer and personal ties with Biden, as he had with Donald Trump. He wants to take the advantage of the Afghanistan issue by the US from this perspective as well. On the other hand, Washington is putting Ankara in the opposite corner at the first stages of the process.
Another difficult situation for Erdoğan. When it rains, it pours, isn’t it?
