“Main opposition CHP’s pledge to take to the streets against rising prices and cost of living struggles has been superseded by rallying to defend its mayors instead. Meanwhile, President Tayyip Erdoğan is seizing the opportunity to “look toward another term.” It’s now out in the open – he wants not just another term, but to remain president for as long as his life allows.”
In light of recent developments, the CHP Central Headquarters is running out of options: as consecutive lawsuits mount against its mayors, the party is force to spent all its energy on defending them. The latest example was the detention of İstanbul’s Beşiktaş district Mayor Rıza Akpolat on corruption charges. CHP’s pledge to take to the streets against rising prices and cost of living struggles has been superseded by rallying to defend its mayors instead.
Meanwhile, President Tayyip Erdoğan is seizing the opportunity to “look toward another term.” It’s now out in the open: he wants not just another term, but to remain president for as long as his life allows.
MHP leader Devlet Bahçeli had already declared, his desire to see Erdoğan remain at the helm indefinitely, a declaration which coincided with the “Öcalan Initiative”. While the Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş insists there’s no connection between the ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) push for a new constitution and the “Öcalan Initiative,” what’s motivating the DEM Party to support this agenda isn’t just the potential release of Öcalan, but the prospect of constitutional amendments.
The Tatlıses stage show
Notably, Erdoğan delivered his “I’m in” message for another presidential term (which the Constitution prohibits except through early elections because he is in his second term) in Şanlıurfa, following the AKP’s Diyarbakır Provincial Congress where the president issued his strongest statements yet about Bahçeli’s Öcalan Initiative. It’s worth noting that he met with Bahçeli before this journey.
In Şanlıurfa, in what appeared to be a staged moment, singer İbrahim Tatlıses was taken to the stage, handed a microphone, and amid effusive praises, asked Erdoğan “are you in for another term?” Everyone knows that when Erdoğan doesn’t want to answer, no one gets a response. But when Tatlıses persisted, Erdoğan seemingly couldn’t resist and replied, “If you’re in, I’m in too.”
Thus, Erdoğan’s intention to seek another presidential term was publicly revealed through Tatlıses’s orchestrated questioning.
AKP Spokesman Ömer Çelik soon followed with his endorsement: “If you’re in, we’re in too” – though of course, they would need to “examine the formula.”
Çelik was referring to whether this would be achieved through Parliament calling early elections or through constitutional amendments – in other words, the mechanism for enabling another term.
CHP’s next move
Erdoğan’s “I’m in” declaration signals that both these formulas – whichever proves viable – will be pursued. Any “normalization” with CHP now seems remote; instead, the AKP is “normalizing” relations with DEM. In a scenario where compromise with CHP is off the table, the only remaining options are either massive defections of parliamentarians from fragmented right-wing parties or reaching an agreement with DEM.
The AKP’s improving poll numbers and occasional leads aren’t solely due to the regime change in Syria and its positive reception among voters; they also stem from CHP’s apparent internal strife and its forced defensive posture due to the barrage of lawsuits, leaving it unable to set its own agenda.
So what’s CHP’s strategy going forward? More specifically, how and with whom will CHP contest the next presidential election?
CHP’s mayors and “internal front” challenge
Both CHP leader Özel and Istanbul Mayor İmamoğlu openly acknowledge that these lawsuits are aimed at politically undermining the party. More legal challenges appear likely. In this context, CHP’s imperative – just as Erdoğan emphasized when declaring “there’s no process but burying the weapons” – is to strengthen its “internal front.”
For the next presidential election, CHP’s most prominent potential candidates are İmamoğlu and Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş. Yavaş faces a significant drawback: running as a candidate outside CHP would cost him the party organization’s crucial support.
Meanwhile, there’s still a faction trying to push former CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu back into the race, insisting “it won’t work without you”. There’s also an Istanbul-based group -the real target of İmamoğlu’s recent outburst-. The detained Akpolat was reportedly associated with this faction in political circles. Additionally, some at party headquarters are telling Özel “You should be the candidate, you’ll definitely win,” echoing what they once told Kılıçdaroğlu.
The government’s pressure campaign and cascade of lawsuits are beyond CHP’s control. To mount a credible challenge for another term, CHP must first consolidate its internal front.
