Dr. Özatay is a professor at TOBB University of Economics and Technology
How will Turkey’s economy perform in 2023? It is a relatively complex question since we have been in an inexplicable period regarding economic conditions, and a critical election is to approach. Hence, it would be more appropriate to try to answer this question by dividing 2023 into two periods: before and after the election. First,
In October, the foreign trade deficit of the last twelve months was $103 billion. The September 2011-February 2012 period witnessed a slightly higher deficit; the highest was $106.7 billion. In short, the record is about to come. However, there is a difference, as there was no “New Economy Model” then. Moreover, there was no argument,
The dollar exchange rate has been relatively calm for about four months (Figure 1). It comes to mind to question the reasons for the calmness and how long it will last. Calmness is, of course, a relative concept. Since the beginning of August, the currency basket (basket exchange rate), which consists of half a dollar
Within the framework of the public-private partnership (PPP) model, income guarantees, which impose a significant burden on the public budget, come to the fore frequently. It can be expected that discussions on this issue will intensify as we move toward the election. PPP is a widely used system in the world. The World Bank’s definition
On September 12, two essential data for July were announced: Labor force and balance of payments. In summary, the situation is like this: The unemployment rate is still at a high level, in particular, the broadly defined unemployment rate is referred to as the ‘underutilized labor rate.’ On the other hand, the current account deficit
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) convened on August 18 and lowered the policy rate by 100 basis points from 14 percent to 13 percent. This interest rate cut was a big surprise even for us who are skeptical of various ongoing incredible things in our beautiful country.
High inflation and increasing poverty have become our most significant economic issues. Consumer inflation in June is 78.6 percent, food inflation is 93 percent, and producer inflation is 138.3 percent. The 2022 inflation rate under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s rule has exceeded the inflation rate of former Prime Minister Bülent Ecevit’s term in 2001, which
After a two-day delay, the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA) announced the rationale and the implementation methods for its Decision numbered 10250 (‘Decision’ from now on), taken on June 24 and caused great controversy; including about loans and rates. The statement made on June 26 sets out the reasoning for the Decision. Trying to
How to start writing this article? The Minister of Treasury and Finance said, “at a crossroads, we have chosen to grow with inflation. Otherwise, we could have taken very drastic measures to reduce inflation.” Alternatively, I would begin with this: “The dollar exchange rate, which had been 9.5 liras at the beginning of November 2021,
The deterioration continues in the current account. We saw a current account deficit of 18.1 billion dollars in the first quarter. This is the highest current account deficit since 2012: 2.2 percent as a ratio of the total GDP of the last four quarters. There is a higher current account deficit to GDP ratio (2.6